Causal Models for Project Evaluation

This chapter introduces causal models for project evaluation, including methods used to estimate counterfactual effects. Firstly, it discusses the regression discontinuity (RD) method, including fuzzy and sharp RD, and its application in transportation. Then, it covers the difference-in-differences methods, noting that panel data helps estimate causality and that difference-in-differences is widely used in transportation research. Finally, the chapter examines the synthetic control method, which creates a “synthetic” control unit for comparison with the treated unit. Synthetic control methods can also construct counterfactual outcome trajectories. However, the synthetic control method has seen limited application in transportation.