Risk Evaluation of Fresh Produce Supply Chain in China Under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

In addressing the challenges of climate change, the Chinese government has established a distinct objective to attain its carbon peak by 2030 and strive for carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment reflects a concerted effort to progressively achieve a state of net-zero carbon dioxide ( \(CO_2\) ) emissions. China’s agriculture faces the significant task of ensuring food security and contributes to the country’s carbon neutrality goals. This study introduces an innovative model for assessing and prioritizing risks in fresh produce supply chain under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in China, employing a hybrid approach combining the Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fuzzy VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje). Nine risk indicators related to carbon emissions are identified through literature review and expert opinion. In the Sichuan company case study, R4 energy consumption emerges as the most severe risk criteria in the supply chain, following closely are R6 product transportation and R1 agricultural practices. This framework provides a useful guide for companies and stakeholders in the fresh produce industry to enhance sustainability and reduce risks in their supply chains.