Physics-Based Prognostics: Review and Future Directions

Prognostics predicts when an asset may fail and has the potential to drastically lower maintenance costs and increase availability. In this, physics-based prognostics considers a variety of external variables that influence deterioration and failure rather than only looking at previous asset failure rates. Physics-based prognostics is crucial for complex systems, where accuracy is paramount, yet testing is constrained. As a result, physics-based prognostics has received considerable research attention in the literature. In this paper, first, the present level of knowledge in physics-based prognostics is reviewed and summarised. This also identifies appropriate physics-based models for engineering systems, including mechanical, aviation, electrical, and electronic systems. The current paper grants practitioners a holistic view of physics-based prognostics, enabling them to develop tailored methods with optimal implementation and performance. This paper’s significant contribution is identifying research challenges and vital areas for further investigation.