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This paper aims at the problems of lack of test data sample size, difficulty in determining parameter estimation methods, and poor accuracy of theoretical parameter value setting when evaluating reliability parameter indicators of equipment whose life span of systems obeys the Weibull distribution type. Take the test craft, for example, a system is established based on the fault tree method. Fault tree determines the main fault types and obtains the reliability of the system. Combined with Bayesian thinking, the Weibull distribution, which is widely used in the life assessment of electromechanical products, is selected as the prior distribution of the test aircraft system, and MATLAB is used to conduct reliability testing to ensure that the distribution describes the life of the system reasonably and accurately. Then the relevant parameters of the Weibull distribution are obtained to determine the life of the system.

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Equipment Life Assessment Based on Fault Tree-Bayesian Thinking Under Small Sample Conditions

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Zhangzhe Sun,
  • Peng Zhang,
  • Zhiyong Yang,
  • Sichen Ou,
  • Lingtao Yu

摘要

This paper aims at the problems of lack of test data sample size, difficulty in determining parameter estimation methods, and poor accuracy of theoretical parameter value setting when evaluating reliability parameter indicators of equipment whose life span of systems obeys the Weibull distribution type. Take the test craft, for example, a system is established based on the fault tree method. Fault tree determines the main fault types and obtains the reliability of the system. Combined with Bayesian thinking, the Weibull distribution, which is widely used in the life assessment of electromechanical products, is selected as the prior distribution of the test aircraft system, and MATLAB is used to conduct reliability testing to ensure that the distribution describes the life of the system reasonably and accurately. Then the relevant parameters of the Weibull distribution are obtained to determine the life of the system.