A Study of Green Supply Chain Finance Risk Contagion Measurement Based on SEIRS Model

With the increasing importance of environmental protection and the introduction of the dual carbon strategy, green supply chains aim to achieve sustainable development of enterprises and increase the audit of green content of enterprises, thus facilitating financing for SMEs. However, compared with supply chain finance, the structure and process of green supply chain finance are more complex and involve many factors, so the probability of risk occurrence is increased and risk contagion is very easy to occur. The existing studies on risk contagion in green supply chain finance have mostly evaluated the risks under static time nodes and lacked the concept of “green” or separate dynamic evolution of risks, which failed to show the overall evolution of risk contagion better. To this end, this paper first uses literature analysis to build a green supply chain financial risk contagion measurement index system to determine the current risk status of enterprises from a static time perspective, and then combines the characteristics of risk contagion based on the SEIRE contagion dynamics model, and uses python programming language to input the enterprise risk status to simulate the green supply chain financial risk contagion path from a dynamic perspective, so as to complete the risk measurement. The results found that the risk contagion rate of green supply chain finance is the key factor to determine the current supply chain risk, i.e., the increase of contagion rate accelerates the enterprise’s bankruptcy; the risk repeated infection rate is the key factor to determine the supply chain recovery from risk, i.e., the increase of repeated contagion rate will weaken the enterprise’s recovery ability.