Bayesian Model Averaging Approach for Urban Drainage Water Quality Modelling

The uncertainty in urban drainage water quality modelling is highly relevance in any practical application. Several models are available in the literature for such tasks, and one of the most problematic choices is the selection of the most appropriate approach for the specific application. The Bayesian Model Averaging approach attempts to support the modeller in such choices by providing a method to identify and select the best performing models and average their output response to reduce the related uncertainty. In the current report, the Bayesian Model Averaging is applied to a real catchment and is compared with several single water quality models. The analysis showed that the Bayesian Model Averaging approach outperformed all single model applications.