Analysis on Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of China’s Highway Transportation Under the Background of Vehicle Electrification

Whether the vehicle electrification will reduce carbon emission in the China’s transportation industry? the relevant study is less. Therefore, carbon emissions from road transportation in China were calculated and predicted from the perspective of fuel life cycle. A two-level econometric model of influencing factors was constructed to analyze the influence of each influencing factor on carbon emissions of road transport. Based on the PSO-LSSVM model, the emission reduction potential of road transport industry under the background of vehicle electrification under different emission reduction policy intensity scenarios was predicted, and the impact of emission reduction policy intensity on emission reduction potential was analyzed. Carbon emission intensity is an important factor affecting the carbon emission of road transportation in China. According to the result, it is suggested that the Chinese government enhance the greening of power generation, promote the electrification of vehicles, and accelerate the emission reduction progress of China’s road transport.