4D Trajectory Prediction with Model Predictive Control Based on Flight Plan

The prediction of four-dimensional trajectory (4DT), consisting of the three-dimensional position of the aircraft over time, is a key element of Trajectory Based Operation (TBO), the operation concept of next-generation air traffic management, which can identify the predictability of the aircraft, achieve separation for safe and efficient operation, and reduce controller workload. Even in Urban Air Mobility (UAM) environments, the importance of TBO and 4DT predictions is further highlighted to manage complex air flows by predicting the location of aircraft in urban areas with limited space, and to ensure safe distance and efficient operation during aviation. This study proposes a methodology for predicting 4DT, a central element of these TBO. Using the flight plan submitted by the aircraft and the Model Predictive Control (MPC), the optimal control theory, the intention of the aircraft is identified and simulated to generate a 4DT. In this process, speed, altitude limitations in the airspace and aircraft performance were applied as constraints. As a result of the study, the generated 4DT was compared with the actual flight data and the utility was confirmed through the evaluation index. This 4DT generation method is expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency of air traffic management, such as modifying flight plans and strategic separation in the UAM environment and is expected to expand to real-time 4DT generation based on real-time flight data.