Predicting the Number of Registered Vehicles, Road Accident, and Road Accident Deaths Using Winter–Holt’s Seasonal Forecasting Method

Road accidents are one of the foremost causes of death in India. Every year almost 1.5 lakh people die in road accidents. India ranks first and accounts for 11% of the road-related deaths in the world (Transport Research Wing, Road accidents in India 2019). To mitigate such an epidemic, every year, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH) reviews, documents, and conducts studies to understand and analyze the road safety scenario. The review report published by MORTH suggests some standards and parameters for assessment. The status report published by MORTH considers the growth in the number of registered vehicles, the number of road accidents, and road accident deaths per year as prominent parameters of evaluation. However post-COVID-19, figures are not available on these parameters. The present study is an attempt to evaluate the figures on road accident rate and road accident death rate. For predicting the data of vehicle registration and road accidents, Winter–Holt’s seasonal forecasting method is used. According to the Holt–Winter’s seasonal forecasting method, it is forecasted that 34, 64, 09,000 registered vehicles, 3, 79,000 road accidents, and 1, 23,000 road accident fatalities will occur in 2021.