Analysis of the Economic Effects of China-Russia Co-construction of the “Polar Silk Road” Based on the GTAP Model

The accelerated melting of sea ice in the Arctic has made the potential value of the Arctic increasingly prominent. The construction of the “Polar Silk Road” is significant to economic cooperation among China, Russia, and Arctic countries along the route. In this paper, the GTAP model and the swap after function are used to modify the closing conditions of the model, the model database is updated by dynamic recursion, and the multi-step Gragg algorithm is used to organically combine the changes in transportation costs with the changes in transportation technical coefficients for the “Polar Silk Road” to predict the effect. The results show that after the “Polar Silk Road” opening, the import and export trade and intraregional welfare of China, Russia, and other countries will increase to varying degrees, and the terms of work will also be improved. Therefore, China and Russia should deeply integrate with the development strategy, actively formulate Arctic affairs and relevant rules, and constantly further promote the development and construction of the “Polar Silk Road.”