Predicting Future Rainfall Scenario in the Brazilian Amazon and Its Socio-Economic Impacts

The Amazon is one of the most important ecosystems in the planet's climate balance. For rainfall patterns in South America, predicting future climate scenarios to the spatial–temporal dynamics of rainfall in the Legal Amazon is essential. In this chapter, we sought to evaluate the spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall in the Legal Amazon based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the temporal lag of the 2081–2100 period. Numerical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models from the Sixth Assessment Report (CMIP6-AR6) were used to calculate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicated greater variability along the time series, intensified after 2061, and a progressive reduction in the SPI for the long-term scenarios, as well as statistically significant increases for temperature extremes and drought severity in some regions, mainly in the eastern Amazon. In addition, the results indicate that the severity of drought and flood events in the future could cause significant socio-economic losses in the states of Amazonas and Acre.