Latin American Croplands in a Changing Climate: Exemplifying the MATOPIBA Region, a New Agricultural Frontier in Northeast Brazil

In recent decades, human activity has been causing climate change, with effects from the global scale to more specific areas, such as the increase in droughts, extreme precipitation events, and high temperatures, among others. Several studies for Brazil indicate important changes in the behavior of temperature and precipitation in several regions. In the case of the agricultural sector, the MATOPIBA region can be highlighted as a new agricultural frontier in the northeast of the country, representing about 21% of national agricultural production. This work evaluates changes in climate patterns from the 1980s onwards. To assess climate trends, monthly data of temperature at 2 m from the surface (T2M), Geopotential Height at 500 hPa (HGT500), and Precipitation (PREC) from the ERA 5 reanalysis provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts were used, with a period from 1980 to 2022. Additionally, Composite Events of Drought and Extreme Heat (CE's) were estimated, using monthly data of Precipitation and Air Temperature from national meteorological stations, adopting extreme thresholds based on the 25th and 90th percentile, respectively. The results indicate an increase in T2M in drier conditions between the year's seasons due to the reduction of PREC and the significant influence of more stable weather systems. It was also observed that from the 2000s onwards, the MATOPIBA witnessed the highest occurrence of CE’s, even when comparing different climatological periods. Finally, it was observed that from decade to decade, there was an increase in the frequency of positive extremes of T2M and negative of PREC.