Learning Through Trial and Error

This chapter examines scenarios where learning is possible, that is, knowledge will be accumulated throughout a project via trial and error. Even if an accident could potentially have been avoided, the process provides insight into the proximity of the risk, such as whether it could have been averted at the last moment or with a safety margin through the value of the precursor. This acquired information serves as valuable input for decision-making in subsequent periods. The chapter delves into the complexities of decision-making within such contexts. In the preceding chapter, we explored the strategy of initiating a project temporarily, monitoring its progress, and subsequently assessing the level of risk when learning is not possible. The current chapter examines the problems with this strategy in contexts where learning is possible.