Urban Passenger Transport Carbon Emission Analysis Based on LEAP Model, a Case of Guangzhou, China

The transportation industry is a major energy consumer, and whether it can successfully complete the set tasks is directly related to the implementation of the country's overall strategic deployment. This paper constructs the LEAP model framework system from a macro perspective. The established model was used to predict the carbon emission trend of urban passenger transport in Guangzhou from 2020 to 2035, and the scenario simulation method was used to compare and analyze the impact of different scenario models on the total carbon emissions of Guangzhou's transportation sector. Improving the fuel economy of transportation vehicles, promoting new energy vehicles, and optimizing the travel structure of residents are three scenarios: carbon emissions will be reduced by 12.0%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively in 2035 compared with the basic scenario, and carbon emissions will peak around 2030–2032, reducing emissions by 17.1% compared with the basic scenario. It is recommended to continuously optimize the urban transportation travel structure, adjust the urban transportation energy consumption structure, continuously improve the governance level of green transportation, and deeply integrate big data applications with urban transportation carbon emission reduction.