Analyzing the Driving Factors Causing Urban Sprawl Using Logistic Regression Model in Greater Shillong Planning Area, India

In recent decades sprawling of urban areas in the outskirts has played a significant role in moulding the direction of urban growth. The urban sprawl that has been predominantly concentrated in agricultural lands and forest areas in contradiction of city development plan, has posed a serious threat to the Environmental protection. In order to address the obstacles of sustainable urbanization and comprehend the trajectories of future of urban growth it is imperative to determine the driving force behind sprawl. Shillong, a prominent hill town in north-eastern India has grown exponentially in last two decades towards its periphery and has been chosen as a case study to monitor landuse dynamics & uncover factors that contributing to urban sprawl. The recent urban expansion of shillong was mapped using Landsat images for the year 2000, 2014, 2022 and classified through Random Forest algorithms. Kappa statistics yielded a satisfactory result with overall accuracy at approximately 92.67%, 93.67%, and 97.33% respectively. Following that, a logistic regression model was used to evaluate the influence of twelve urban growth determinants identified through a review of relevant literature and consultation with local experts. The outcome of the study concluded that the distance from major roads, the distance from urban areas, and the distance from C.B.D areas are among the most significant determinants for urban expansion with coefficients values of − 0.83, − 0.86, and − 0.91, correspondingly. The findings indicate that there was an uninterrupted growth of urban land from 2000 to 2022, during this time periods there was a stretching of 1857.60 ha built-up land with an average annual rate of 3.29% and average annual intensity rate of 84.44 ha yr-1, respectively. Present study highlight the growing concerns posed by urban sprawl, which has absorbed numerous peripheral villages into the boundaries of the Greater shillong planning areas.