Introduction: Demography of Natural Disasters

In demography, natural disasters are considered a factor in the positive checks to population. Zelinsky, a pioneer in population geography, stated that disasters temporarily interrupt basic, long-term trends. Although they leave no lasting mark on the population, their immediate impact can be severe. The scars left by such natural and social disasters disappear within a few generations for populations with fertility rates above the population replacement level during population transition processes. However, this is not the case for current Japanese society and disaster-affected areas in Japan where the fertility rates have fallen significantly below the population replacement level. In this study, we examine past natural disasters in the Tohoku Region where demographic and mobility transition processes have progressed. We introduce the concept of a “disaster response cycle” model to explain short- and long-term demographic changes after disasters.