Electrification of Road Freight Transport: A Case Study of the Greater Bay Area, China

Transport carbon emissions have posed increasing threats to climate change. While the road freight sector contributes to over 25% of carbon emissions in road transport, there has not been much research on decarbonizing road freight transport. Hence, this study aims to examine the road freight CO2 emissions in the Greater Bay Area, China, during 2000–2018, and identify regional-local electrification policy measures to accelerate freight transport decoupling in the region by 2050. The research methodology is as follows. Firstly, road freight CO2 emissions were estimated using a distance-based approach. Then, the concept of decoupling is applied to gauge the transport decarbonization progress. With electric trucks being more feasible, this study then conducts a backcasting analysis to examine the EV policy measures required to envisage long-term decarbonization in the region. Results show that the total volume of road freight CO2 emissions has increased substantially in the region between 2000 and 2018. Moreover, the decoupling progress has remained limited, with most cities achieving relative decoupling only. The backcasting analysis suggests that proactive policy efforts are required to enhance the market share of electric trucks to 100% by 2030, and to increase the renewable energy to 90% in the electricity grid by 2050 so as to reach the long-term decarbonization target.