Integrated Dynamic Assessment Model for Life Cycle Energy of Buildings

As global warming intensifies, excessive energy consumption has emerged as a prominent global concern, particularly within the building sector. However, the existing policies, technologies, and strategies used to evaluate building energy systems have fallen short of achieving the desired energy conservation targets. This can be attributed to the complexity of the energy system, which encompasses various influential factors, particularly on a national scale. To address this gap, the objective of this study is to elucidate the intricate internal interactions and feedback mechanisms within a national-level energy system. With a focus on the building sector in China, an extended projected-level life cycle energy system was established based on the LEAP model. This system is integrated with four other macro systems pertaining to energy, population, economy, and environment, in accordance with the IPAT and KI theory, thus forming a comprehensive national-level energy system. System dynamics (SD) methodology is employed to unveil the detailed top-down relationships within this system. Results shows (1) strong interdependencies exist among the five coupled energy-related subsystems, namely population, economy, buildings, energy, and environment; (2) an integrated dynamic energy assessment (IDEA) model has been developed, which allows for the quantification of national-level energy consumption; (3) mobile energy types significantly influence the life cycle energy of buildings. While the proposed comprehensive model requires further validation through empirical studies, this research not only advances the theory and model development for national-level building energy assessment, but also provides valuable insights for the Chinese government in formulating effective energy conservation strategies and policies.