Agent-Based Simulation Modeling for Enhancing the Citizens’ Sense of Gain on Smart City Services in the VUCA Era

Supplying citizen-centric smart city services (SCS) is a common strategy for countries to enhance urban sustainability in the volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous (VUCA) era. Citizen’s sense of gain in the Chinese context could perfectly interpret the connotation of citizen-centric. In order to formulate enhancement strategies for citizens’ sense of gain on smart city services (CSGSCS) in the VUCA era, this research set simulation hypotheses based on ECM, established the agent-based simulation model by Anylogic software, and validated the model by code check and agent state check. Nanjing city was taken as the case to carry out the scenario simulation to enhance CSGSCS. The results showed that the polarization would occur with the enhancement of CSGSCS, expectation confirmation was the most effective influencing factor to enhance CSGSCS, and high information spreading speed would reduce the total CSGSCS and exacerbate the polarization of CSGSCS. Finally, three implications were proposed, including caring for the vulnerable groups to bridge the digital divide, surveying citizens’ demands to guide SCS supply, and strengthening public opinion supervision to avoid the spread of negative information. This study not only improved the academic framework in the field of CSGSCS, but also provided practical guidance for the government to formulate the sustainable supply strategies of SCS.