Land Suitability Analysis for Potential Vineyards Extension Using a Fuzzy Expert System and Remote Sensing Datasets at a Regional Scale

Grapes are one of the world’s most widely distributed crops and are cultivated in more than 100 countries in the global scheme. Due to climate change and improper vine growth, variable selection, production has significantly decreased across countries. Combining multiple criteria such as climatic, topographic, vegetation, and soil properties based on satellite remote sensing datasets can play an important role in finding the potential classified areas for suitable lands to increase grapevine cultivation. While using multicriteria analysis, fuzzy set theory can serve to prevent misclassification of vineyard in the suitability analysis. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to develop a land suitability analysis method using a fuzzy expert system at a regional scale. In this regard, fuzzy-based multicriteria decision-making system was used with geographical information system (GIS) and fuzzy membership functions. The criteria maps such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), rainfall, topographic variables (elevation, and slope), soil property related variables, roads, and rivers were collected from Google Earth Engine (GEE), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), United States Geological Survey (USGS), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Afghanistan road network and United Nations Disaster Assessment (OCHA) websites. The fuzzy membership function was used in the ArcGIS® environment to perform the spatial analysis, and the overlay function was used to generate the final suitability map for Afghanistan considering policy planning. The results indicated that 23% (15,760,144 ha) of the areas were potential and located in the highly suitable region for grape production; however, 11% (7,370,025 ha) of the regions were not suitable for vineyards throughout the country of Afghanistan. In the present study, it was observed that most of the vineyards were in highly suitable areas (90%, 80,466 ha), while 0.01% (5 ha) of the vineyards were in less suitable areas. The present analysis demonstrated that the significant extension of grape vines can be possible in highly suitable areas. The results of this research can support decision-makers, farm managers, and land developers to find more prospective acreage for expanding vineyards in Afghanistan.