Drought Monitoring and Rice Yield Loss Assessment Using Various Drought Indices and the SPI by an Integrated Approach of the AHP in the Central Dry Zone of Myanmar

Persistent water shortages in a given region can cause severe drought and agricultural yield fluctuations. Yield fluctuations can occur in areas where high temperatures are associated with low precipitation levels. Rice, among all agricultural products, is more susceptible to drought because it requires more water from the growing to the ripening stages. Consequently, water shortages due to drought have prompted significant yield losses in the central dry zone of Myanmar. Therefore, the main purpose of this research was to quantify the drought level in each drought-affected district by using physiological, meteorological, and moisture indices. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-determined weights were used to combine all indices into one composite drought index. Finally, the yield loss was calculated for the winter season using regression analysis. The results indicated that more than 50% of the center dry zone was affected by severe to abnormal conditions from 2019 to 2021. Furthermore, severe yield fluctuations were observed in the Sagaing and Mandalay districts in 2020. In this regard, the findings suggest that drought assessment on a regional scale may assist farmers and stakeholders in monitoring crop moisture levels and developing early warning systems by providing timely information on possible dangers throughout the rice growing season.