Destruction Probability Analysis Based on Customised Bullet Curtain

In modern warfare, the traditional method of firing at the predicted future point of the target has become ineffective due to the upgrading and development of high technology and the increasing mobility of enemy flying targets. This method is characterized by high ammunition consumption and low damage probability. To address this issue, this paper presents a new approach based on the future airspace window theory. The approach involves forming a customized curtain around the predicted future point of the target using the target’s present point location information. This customised curtain significantly enhances the probability of damaging the target. The paper begins by introducing the future airspace window firing regime. It then provides a detailed analysis of two forms of customised curtain, along with the conditions for switching between the two types. Subsequently, the method for calculating the damage probability based on the future airspace window is explained. Finally, the paper conducts an example analysis to compare the conventional firing mode with the customised curtain strike mode proposed in this study. The results demonstrate that, for modern aerial manoeuvring targets, the customised curtain strike mode yields a much higher destruction probability compared to the conventional firing mode.