Subjective Probability and Common Knowledge

When we receive information, we do not process it in a probabilistic manner in terms of uncertainty reduction. That is simply not how the human mind works, neither mine nor anyone else’s. This perspective aligns with our intuitive understanding of how humans truly communicate. While information can potentially reduce uncertainty, the notion that messages are processed based on probability does not resonate with our internal experiences. The act of receiving information is not inherently “probabilistic” in nature. It lacks the presence of subjectively held beliefs or objective frequency observations that would determine our expectations of future messages if the process were probabilistic.