Study on Monthly Ensemble Precipitation Forecast in the Qiantang River Basin
摘要
In this paper, the grid precipitation with a monthly forecast period and spatial resolution of \(0.5^{^\circ }\) in the Qiantang River basin is taken as the research object the forecasting skills of Seasonal Forecast System 5 are evaluated, and a Bayesian joint probability model is used as a statistical post-processing model for correction. The results show that the raw ensemble precipitation forecast has problems, such as large system deviation and low reliability, and the accuracy and reliability of the corrected precipitation forecast are effectively improved.