Identification of Extreme Precipitation Changes Due to Climate Change in Indonesia

This study uses Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) precipitation data to identify extreme precipitation intensity and frequency changes in Indonesia. Extreme precipitation calculations were performed using the Gumbel distribution and return period fitted to annual maxima data. Extreme precipitation and frequency of extreme events were compared between the historical period and the near-future period (2026–2055) and the far-future period (2070–2099) to identify changes. The results showed that there were changes in extreme precipitation in Indonesia both in intensity and frequency of occurrence. Extreme precipitation with a 5-year return period in Indonesia generally has a change value in the range of − 5 to + 25% with most areas likely to increase. The increased value reaches + 20% in the near-future period and + 40% in the far-future period. For the frequency of extreme precipitation above the 5-year return period in Indonesia, the change value is generally in the range of − 40 to + 120% with most areas likely to increase. The increased value reaches + 160% in the near-future period and + 200% in the far-future period. In the higher emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the areas with higher values of increase will expand both in the change in intensity and frequency of occurrence.