The Correlation Between El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) and Rainfall in Indonesia as a Basis for Determining Key Areas to Support Climate Change Adaptation in Agricultural Sector

El Niño is an extreme climate event that has a significant impact on the agricultural sector in the form of drought. The impacts of extreme climate events are specific location. The Key Area is important for knowing the location that have impact of El Niño on rainfall, considering that rainfall is one of the climate parameters that influences various activities, especially agriculture. The relationship between global indicators and strong and significant rainfall anomalies is used to identify areas that are vulnerable and sensitive to changes and extreme climate events. The Key Area is determined based on a strong correlation (> 0.5) and significance (p < 0.1, for 90% confidence level) between the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) and rainfall in Indonesia. The EMI is an index that has not been exposed much but has a strong correlation with rainfall in several locations in Indonesia. The aim of this study is to determine key location of El Niño events based on the correlation between the EMI and rainfall in Indonesia to support climate change adaptation in the Agricultural Sector. The results of the analysis showed 7 Key Area with a positive strong correlation (0.500–0.636) very significant at lag 3 and 4 and 2 Key Area with negative strong correlation (− 0.513 until − 0.508) very significant. Determination of Key Areas helps to determine priority locations for adaptation actions based on their level of vulnerability in Agriculture Sector.