Hazard Assessment on Agriculture Sector for Pilot Sites in West Java Province

Climate hazards disrupt sectors, including farming, hindering national, and local development. To address this, the Minister of National Development Planning (Bappenas) introduced the 2020–2045 Climate Resilience Development Policy Document (CRD) aiming to predict climate change impacts and reduce economic losses. Agriculture, heavily affected, is a focus for enhanced resilience. In West Java, rice production could decrease by 10.1–17.5%, impacting the agriculture-dependent economy. Strengthening approaches requires updating hazard assessments using Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) data for Hi-Resolution Climate Projection (5 × 5 km). This study aims to update agriculture hazard assessments for 2020–2034 and the near future (2035–2055) using BMKG’s climate projections and recommend local climate resilience policies. The analysis focuses on West Java’s city/district level for practical governance, providing hazard assessment maps for potential rice production declines. Projections for rice production in 2024, 2029, 2034, 2039, and 2045 predict decreasing yields based on rainfall-rice production relationships. Notably, declines in 2039 and 2045 surpass earlier years. Short-term (2024–2029) projections suggest moderate hazards; four West Java districts/cities face high hazards: Bekasi, Bekasi City, Karawang, and Bandung City. Long-term (2030–2045) projections reveal heightened climate risks in 15 out of 27 cities/districts. To ensure lasting action, blend climate change adaptations and mitigation into local policies. Employ short, medium, and long-term strategies to counteract climate impacts on rice production. Short-medium-term actions include adopting advanced rice types (resilient to drought, submergence, and high salinity), employing water-efficient methods like Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD), water-harvesting, and efficient fertilizer practices. In the long run, establish early warning systems for droughts, floods, pests, and diseases. Enforce land conversion guidelines, manage drainage for farms, optimize practices using climate data, bridge yield gaps, and prioritize sustainable production.