The Influence of Variations in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Values on Hail Production in CM1 Simulations

Predicting hailstorm occurrences presents a challenge due to observation and detection methodologies’ constraints. A derivative quantity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), is beneficial to hailstorm prediction, as it can influence storm structure and updraft characteristics. This research aims to establish the impact of CAPE values on hail formation through simulations using Cloud Model 1 (CM1) version 21.1. The study employs the two-moment Morrison microphysics scheme and focuses on supercell storms. Juanda Meteorological Class I Station soundings provide the thermodynamic profiles from which CAPE is calculated. The radiosonde data were obtained from the University of Wyoming. CAPE values are tested in the simulation span of 500–2000 J/kg, referencing the CAPE levels during the 2022 Surabaya hailstorm event. Results highlight that CAPE within the 1600–2000 J/kg range tends to generate notable vertical wind velocities or maximum updraft (w) values up to 35 m/s. These conditions foster cumulonimbus cloud development, with the potential to initiate hailstorms. Conversely, CAPE values within the lower range (500–1500 J/kg) yield diminished maximum updraft values around 0.03 m/s.