Forecast of China's Real Estate Industry Development Situation Based on ARIMA Model: Taking Vanke as an Example

In recent years, under the influence of various factors such as the COVID-19, the economic situation is not optimistic around the world. Among them, China's real estate industry has experienced particularly large fluctuations during this period. The future development of Chinese real estate market is also one of the economic topics that people pay close attention to. This study adopts the principle of time series analysis and forecasting, selects the stock price data of Vanke Group, a representative enterprise in China's real estate industry, from 2018 to 2023 as the analysis object. Using the ARIMA model to analyse and predict the data in order to forecast the future development of Vanke and even the entire Chinese real estate market. The research found that the stock price will continue to show a downward trend in the remaining 2023 and it will start to rise slowly on the eve of 2024, which means that Chinese real estate will usher in a certain recovery after a period of continuous trough in the future.