Analysis and Forecast of USD/EUR Exchange Rate Based on ARIMA and GARCH Models

This article examines the use of ARIMA and GARCH models to predict and analyze the fluctuations in the USD/EUR exchange rate over the next 53 weeks, based on historical data from 2013 to 2023. The study concludes that the ARIMA model is not well-suited for forecasting exchange rate fluctuations and that the GARCH (1,1) model is a good fit for analyzing volatility in finance. This research provides valuable information for investors and multinational corporations involved in international trade and finance, and can help mitigate the risks associated with financial decision-making. However, this study has limitations, including the use of data from a limited period and the failure to consider external factors that may affect exchange rate movements. This article suggests that future research could focus on integrating more recent data and exploring the use of more variable models to predict exchange rates. Overall, this study aims to serve as a reference for financial investment risk decision-making.