Resilience Assessment of the South-to-North Water Diversion Central Route Project by Using Urban Futures Method

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a significant initiative of China to address water scarcity. Due to the long-term drought and water shortage in the northern region, the economic and social development in the Huang-Huai-Hai region has been limited. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project has laid the foundation for sustainable development. In this study, the Urban Futures Method was used to analyze the performance of the five necessary conditions for the South-to-North Water Diversion Central Route Project under four future social scenarios constructed by the Global Scenario Group, in order to evaluate the project's resilience in the future. The results showed that the scheme had excellent resilience in the “policy reform” scenario, performed well in the “New Sustainability Paradigm” scenario, and had poor resilience in the “Market Forces” and “Fortress World” scenarios. Government-led construction is more suitable for this project, but market-based resource allocation can be improved in the future. In terms of maintenance, two aspects should be involved: resisting social conflicts and preventing river pollution. In addition, the government and relevant departments need to constantly improve and innovate, adapt to the technological development under the new sustainable concept, and timely enhance the sustainability and resilience of the South-to-North Water Diversion Central Route Project.