Main Parameter Limits and Risk Assessment of Benefit Development of Unconventional Oil and Gas Projects

Unconventional oil and gas resources have attracted much attention as a realistic alternative energy. Its exploration and development has a major strategy to reduce the increasing contradiction between supply and demand of oil and gas resources and ensure national energy security. On the basis of in-depth analysis of the economic characteristics of unconventional oil and gas development projects, combined with the break-even and cash flow evaluation methods, and taking the financial net present value as zero as the balance point, this paper establishes the economic boundary model of the main parameters of unconventional oil and gas development, and gives the risk assessment method of unconventional oil and gas development project investment decision under uncertain conditions, which is applicable to the uncertain decision-making needs of unconventional oil and gas development. Taking HJ block as an example, 6 wells were selected from 10 tight gas wells using the daily production limit model, and risk analysis was carried out for 6 wells. Random simulation showed that the probability of NPV >  0 was 0.8431. The established boundary and risk assessment of the main parameters for the benefit development of unconventional oil and gas projects can provide decision support for the effective use of unconventional oil and gas, and is of great significance for the strategic transformation of domestic oil fields.