Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emission for Urban Building Sector in China: A Case Study in Shenzhen

As one of the main carbon emission sectors, the building industry plays a significant role in realization of the city’s carbon neutrality. Most of the current research about building carbon emission are focusing on individual buildings, and there is a lack of comprehensive calculation and planning research on carbon emission in building complexes, that is urban-level buildings. On this background, this paper analyzed carbon emission in urban building sector and established (1) an urban carbon emission calculation model by utilizing statistical data from the city's ‘Statistical Yearbook’ and analyzing the energy consumption of public and residential buildings, and construction industry; (2) a carbon emission prediction model by applying ‘bottom-up’ analysis. A case study in Shenzhen City in South China has been conducted. The models can systematically analyze the carbon emission in both the building construction stage and operational stage in the building sector. Analysis results of the case study show that the city's overall amount of carbon emission in the building sector is rising in which public buildings accounting for the highest proportion, and electricity consumption is the main source of carbon emission. For scenario prediction, the building sector will reach its emission peak in 2031, with peak value of carbon emission of 31.29 million tons, which is 6.74% higher than the value in 2020.