The accurate prediction of bus arrival times at intersections is critical for intelligent transportation systems and urban traffic management. However, this remains challenging due to the complex interplay of spatio-temporal dynamics and multi-source uncertainties. To address this, we propose a two-stage prediction framework that integrates trajectory reconstruction with spatio-temporal dependency modeling. Structured sequences are built through trajectory interpolation, route projection, and intersection matching, decoupling the prediction into two sub-tasks: segment travel time prediction between intersections and delay time prediction within intersection areas. For the former, we develop the Spatio-Temporal Neural Network for Bus Travel Time Prediction between Intersections (STBTTI), which employs a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) encoder-decoder with self-attention. For the latter, we design the Spatio-Temporal Neural Network for Bus Delay Time Prediction at Intersections (STBDTI), incorporating feature enhancement, adaptive graph convolution, and multi-level attention. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate the framework’s superior accuracy and stability in predicting intersection-level bus arrivals.

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Bus Arrival Time Prediction at Intersections via Structured Spatio-Temporal Learning

  • Ziheng Li,
  • Xufei Zhuang,
  • Chenxi Yang,
  • Ting Du,
  • Yujie Wang,
  • Weijun Wu,
  • Yeyu Zhong

摘要

The accurate prediction of bus arrival times at intersections is critical for intelligent transportation systems and urban traffic management. However, this remains challenging due to the complex interplay of spatio-temporal dynamics and multi-source uncertainties. To address this, we propose a two-stage prediction framework that integrates trajectory reconstruction with spatio-temporal dependency modeling. Structured sequences are built through trajectory interpolation, route projection, and intersection matching, decoupling the prediction into two sub-tasks: segment travel time prediction between intersections and delay time prediction within intersection areas. For the former, we develop the Spatio-Temporal Neural Network for Bus Travel Time Prediction between Intersections (STBTTI), which employs a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) encoder-decoder with self-attention. For the latter, we design the Spatio-Temporal Neural Network for Bus Delay Time Prediction at Intersections (STBDTI), incorporating feature enhancement, adaptive graph convolution, and multi-level attention. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate the framework’s superior accuracy and stability in predicting intersection-level bus arrivals.