Labor migration from Pakistan to the Gulf countries dates back to the 1970s and continues to remain very important economically and socially. About 14.1 million labor migrants have gone to the Gulf to date, constituting almost 96% of the total outflows. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the two top destinations. This paper provides an overview of the major factors that are likely to determine future outflows from the country. With a growth rate of 2.5% the population is expected to reach more than 403 million in 2050, providing an ample supply of potential labor force. Pakistani workers have lower levels of education and few of them have skill certification that may pose employment difficulties for them in future. Pakistan has, however, established several facilities for vocational training that could improve the skill level of its workers and make them more competitive. About 99% all migrant workers are male, with about 56% employed in unskilled and low-skilled occupations. The demands for foreign workers in the Gulf are changing with their visions of development aimed at building a knowledge economy. Host countries are likely to require an increasing percentage of highly skilled workers and Pakistan may not be fully equipped to supply such workers. Digitization and automation of jobs in the Gulf may also limit future demand for the relatively low-skilled workers. Social factors such as the presence of networks of friends and relatives could, however, continue to support additional migration in future, along with the persistence of migration through intermediaries attached to the kafala system.

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Some Reflections on Future Labor Migration from Pakistan to the Gulf States

  • Nasra M. Shah,
  • Memoona Qazi

摘要

Labor migration from Pakistan to the Gulf countries dates back to the 1970s and continues to remain very important economically and socially. About 14.1 million labor migrants have gone to the Gulf to date, constituting almost 96% of the total outflows. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the two top destinations. This paper provides an overview of the major factors that are likely to determine future outflows from the country. With a growth rate of 2.5% the population is expected to reach more than 403 million in 2050, providing an ample supply of potential labor force. Pakistani workers have lower levels of education and few of them have skill certification that may pose employment difficulties for them in future. Pakistan has, however, established several facilities for vocational training that could improve the skill level of its workers and make them more competitive. About 99% all migrant workers are male, with about 56% employed in unskilled and low-skilled occupations. The demands for foreign workers in the Gulf are changing with their visions of development aimed at building a knowledge economy. Host countries are likely to require an increasing percentage of highly skilled workers and Pakistan may not be fully equipped to supply such workers. Digitization and automation of jobs in the Gulf may also limit future demand for the relatively low-skilled workers. Social factors such as the presence of networks of friends and relatives could, however, continue to support additional migration in future, along with the persistence of migration through intermediaries attached to the kafala system.