The jeepney transport sector in the Philippines, despite its significance, lags behind in technology, with many vehicles exceeding maximum age and emission standards, contributing to pollution and congestion. Government initiatives like the PUVMP aim to modernize by offering subsidies, yet adoption, particularly of electric jeepneys, remains low due to high costs. This study addresses the lack of modeling studies on jeepney adoption, proposing a hybrid ABSDM approach integrating qualitative and quantitative factors. Successfully simulating various adoption influencers, the model combines agent-based modeling (ABM) for buyer behavior and system dynamics modeling (SDM) for manufacturing and policy costs. Developed with input from industry stakeholders, the model evaluates different policy plans, revealing certain strategies that increase electric jeepney adoption while reducing emissions and costs. This fills a gap in understanding and allows for the design of effective policy roadmaps. Serving as a benchmark, the model suggests avenues for future refinement with more data and diverse modeling approaches. Ultimately, it provides valuable insights for policymakers to promote sustainable transportation in the Philippines.

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System Dynamics Modeling of Electric Vehicle Policy Scenarios for Reduced Emissions

  • Jeun Rei Barlis,
  • Neil Stephen Lopez

摘要

The jeepney transport sector in the Philippines, despite its significance, lags behind in technology, with many vehicles exceeding maximum age and emission standards, contributing to pollution and congestion. Government initiatives like the PUVMP aim to modernize by offering subsidies, yet adoption, particularly of electric jeepneys, remains low due to high costs. This study addresses the lack of modeling studies on jeepney adoption, proposing a hybrid ABSDM approach integrating qualitative and quantitative factors. Successfully simulating various adoption influencers, the model combines agent-based modeling (ABM) for buyer behavior and system dynamics modeling (SDM) for manufacturing and policy costs. Developed with input from industry stakeholders, the model evaluates different policy plans, revealing certain strategies that increase electric jeepney adoption while reducing emissions and costs. This fills a gap in understanding and allows for the design of effective policy roadmaps. Serving as a benchmark, the model suggests avenues for future refinement with more data and diverse modeling approaches. Ultimately, it provides valuable insights for policymakers to promote sustainable transportation in the Philippines.