Predicting Future Situations Requiring Resilient Performance and Deriving Competencies to Strengthen in Preparation: An Analysis Based on the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)
摘要
In recent years, socio-technical systems, including aviation, require “resilience,” the ability of people to maintain or improve their functioning by responding and adjusting flexibly to changing circumstances. To enhance resilience, focusing on daily successes (normal operations) and learning from them is necessary. However, it is not easy to learn from normal operations to understand the factors that led to why they succeeded. Therefore, an attempt is being made to identify resilience competencies from near-miss incidents, considering them “successful cases in which flexible human behavior did not lead to accidents.” In this study, we propose a method for applying the resilience competencies identified in previous research to the practice of safety management. We predict the increase or decrease of situations where near-miss incidents occur, which are situations that require resilient performance. Furthermore, we propose a method for deriving the resilience competencies needed in those situations. This method is believed to enable focused training on specific resilience competencies in preparation for future situational changes.