The purpose of the work is to model and predictively analyze the process of public transport movement along urban highways, taking into account the traffic congestion of road sections at different periods of time. To achieve the goal, the problem of predictive assessment, calculation, and adjustment of the arrival time of public transport at intermediate and final points of its routes in an urban environment is solved, taking into account the dynamics of changes in transport and pedestrian flows, travel times at controlled and unregulated intersections and other factors. As a result of the research, a methodology and software application was developed for analyzing the movement of vehicles and predicting their average speed on sections of the route, taking into account various factors and adjusting the predicted time of arrival depending on current traffic conditions. The goal is to increase the accuracy of forecasting the time of arrival of vehicles at given stopping points along the routes. The efficiency criterion is the average absolute deviation of the predicted time of arrival of transport at intermediate and final points of routes from the real one under the current traffic situation. The software proposal is designed to predict and adjust the travel time of public transport along the route.

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Predictive Analysis and Modeling of Public Transport Arrival Time

  • Anton Finogeev,
  • Michael Deev,
  • Ruslan Mayorov,
  • Alexey Finogeev

摘要

The purpose of the work is to model and predictively analyze the process of public transport movement along urban highways, taking into account the traffic congestion of road sections at different periods of time. To achieve the goal, the problem of predictive assessment, calculation, and adjustment of the arrival time of public transport at intermediate and final points of its routes in an urban environment is solved, taking into account the dynamics of changes in transport and pedestrian flows, travel times at controlled and unregulated intersections and other factors. As a result of the research, a methodology and software application was developed for analyzing the movement of vehicles and predicting their average speed on sections of the route, taking into account various factors and adjusting the predicted time of arrival depending on current traffic conditions. The goal is to increase the accuracy of forecasting the time of arrival of vehicles at given stopping points along the routes. The efficiency criterion is the average absolute deviation of the predicted time of arrival of transport at intermediate and final points of routes from the real one under the current traffic situation. The software proposal is designed to predict and adjust the travel time of public transport along the route.