Since people on Earth started to worry about the first few infection cases, wisdom for reducing the risks has been circulated and shared. In question to the prevalent wisdom “Stay Home” and “three C’s,” and their negative impact on the economy, we created a new social network model and its extensions to capture complex infection expansions. As a result of computational simulations, we obtained findings, starting from “Stay with Your Community” which loosens the restraints from the two above, and also relevant findings by using datasets on weather, population, mobility, and more importantly, questions from researchers and living people involved in pandemics. As a result, we discovered several useful pieces of knowledge, including the five: (1) stay with your community: everyone should meet less strangers than those whom one knows, (2) traveling far without vaccination may cause pandemics due to violating the condition in (1) that is becoming too socially active, (3) interaction of people in a multi-context society including schools, businesses, entertainments, etc. accelerates infections, which can be predicted by a new social network model integrating these cultures; (4) vaccination should be equalized across local regions to reduce pandemics risk and make travel safe; and (5) the diversity of human movement directions is a useful index for evaluating the risk of pandemics. Furthermore, the existing wisdom of scientists may make us overlook some kind of causality, including the influence of weather or human movements, which can be coped with by frank communication to connect and create questions by visualizing the network of those questions.

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Driven by Models, Data, and People Toward Lessons from “Stay with Your Community”

  • Yukio Ohsawa,
  • Sae Kondo,
  • Tomohide Maekawa,
  • Tadahiko Murata,
  • Kaira Sekiguchi

摘要

Since people on Earth started to worry about the first few infection cases, wisdom for reducing the risks has been circulated and shared. In question to the prevalent wisdom “Stay Home” and “three C’s,” and their negative impact on the economy, we created a new social network model and its extensions to capture complex infection expansions. As a result of computational simulations, we obtained findings, starting from “Stay with Your Community” which loosens the restraints from the two above, and also relevant findings by using datasets on weather, population, mobility, and more importantly, questions from researchers and living people involved in pandemics. As a result, we discovered several useful pieces of knowledge, including the five: (1) stay with your community: everyone should meet less strangers than those whom one knows, (2) traveling far without vaccination may cause pandemics due to violating the condition in (1) that is becoming too socially active, (3) interaction of people in a multi-context society including schools, businesses, entertainments, etc. accelerates infections, which can be predicted by a new social network model integrating these cultures; (4) vaccination should be equalized across local regions to reduce pandemics risk and make travel safe; and (5) the diversity of human movement directions is a useful index for evaluating the risk of pandemics. Furthermore, the existing wisdom of scientists may make us overlook some kind of causality, including the influence of weather or human movements, which can be coped with by frank communication to connect and create questions by visualizing the network of those questions.