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This chapter presents a model we developed in the spring of 2022 to compute projections of hospitalized patients, ICU patients, and COVID-19 deaths—conditional on a specified path of future new infections—for 47 prefectures in Japan. Using our model, we regularly provided projections for hospital demand at a prefecture-level from April 2022 to March 2023. We also developed an online tool allowing users to generate model-based projections for hospital bed demand given a user-specified path of future new infections. Our experience suggests that regularly updated projections for local hospital demand and a user-friendly tool can be useful in assisting local governments in their policy planning during a pandemic.

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Prefecture-Level Projections for COVID-19 Hospital Bed Demand in Japan

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Kazuya Haganuma,
  • Taisuke Nakata,
  • Wataru Okamoto

摘要

This chapter presents a model we developed in the spring of 2022 to compute projections of hospitalized patients, ICU patients, and COVID-19 deaths—conditional on a specified path of future new infections—for 47 prefectures in Japan. Using our model, we regularly provided projections for hospital demand at a prefecture-level from April 2022 to March 2023. We also developed an online tool allowing users to generate model-based projections for hospital bed demand given a user-specified path of future new infections. Our experience suggests that regularly updated projections for local hospital demand and a user-friendly tool can be useful in assisting local governments in their policy planning during a pandemic.