Exploring the Inter-sectoral Linkages Among the Three Economic Sectors: Evidence from India
摘要
In this chapter we investigate the issue of inter-sectoral spillovers by taking timeseries data for four decades (covering the period 1982–83 to 2022–23) in the case of Indian economy. Besides, this chapter also attempts to explore and analyse the trend in sectoral shares in the gross value added (GVA) and the sectoral growth rates (GRs). The latter (i.e. GVAGRs) exhibits lowest volatility in the services sector which in turn accounts for stability in GDP growth rate. The chapter employs multivariate Granger causality analysis to investigate the causal relationship among three sectors viz. AGR, IND and SERV. Our findings suggest the existence of a bi-directional causality between IND and SERV (IND < = > SERV) and unidirectional causality both between IND and AGR (IND = > AGR) and SERV and AGR (SERV = > AGR). Our results indicate that the non-agriculture sector is a driving force for the agricultural growth. Therefore, key policy lesson is that for attaining and fostering broad based growth on a sustainable basis in India the industrial and services sector should be assigned utmost priority in the governmental policies and their complementarity must be acknowledged by the policy makers. Simultaneously, the policy actions should be initiated to prime the pump of agricultural growth.