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Metro sudden passenger flow event is one of the main risk events affecting the normal operation of the subway. A large number of passengers gathered is a high security risk, and may cause safety accidents, revealing the impact of the sudden passenger flow risk events in subway stations, using the Bow-tie model to qualitatively analyze the sudden passenger flow event. Finally, a prior probabilities obtained from the expert evaluation are inputted into the Bayesian network. It is found that the highest probability of the consequences is the related events corresponding to C7, C8, C9, and C10, with a probability of 0.35. The probability of the event is reduced to 0.022 by constructing the corresponding preventive barriers, which verifies the validity of the model.

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Cause Analysis and Control Measures of Sudden High Passenger Flow Risk in Subway Stations Based on Bow-Tie Model

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Huiru Zhang,
  • Yanhui Wang,
  • Yifei Wang,
  • Ye Zhao,
  • Xinnan Wang,
  • Xiang Wang

摘要

Metro sudden passenger flow event is one of the main risk events affecting the normal operation of the subway. A large number of passengers gathered is a high security risk, and may cause safety accidents, revealing the impact of the sudden passenger flow risk events in subway stations, using the Bow-tie model to qualitatively analyze the sudden passenger flow event. Finally, a prior probabilities obtained from the expert evaluation are inputted into the Bayesian network. It is found that the highest probability of the consequences is the related events corresponding to C7, C8, C9, and C10, with a probability of 0.35. The probability of the event is reduced to 0.022 by constructing the corresponding preventive barriers, which verifies the validity of the model.