In order to solve the problem that research on the influencing factors of transportation carbon emission is generally on the macro side, this paper screens the carbon emission factors based on the gray correlation analysis, establishes an extended STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emission, and researches the carbon emission reduction path. The results show that: per capita energy production, CO2 emission intensity, the proportion of natural gas, the ownership of civil transportation ships at the end of the year, and the ownership of railroad locomotives at the end of the year have a large impact on carbon emissions. The peak time under the natural scenario, baseline scenario, and ambitious scenario is 2030, 2025, and 2023, respectively, and the carbon emission reduction paths are analyzed in terms of the energy utilization rate, and the carbon emission reduction rate per unit of energy consumption, providing a theoretical basis for carbon reduction measures.