Since 2019, the world economy was hit by two major external shocks, the COVID-19 epidemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, including China, of course. The Chinese government has also adopted economic policies to stabilize the Chinese economy. In this paper, by constructing a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, based on the impulse response image, the influences and consequences of China’s economic policies on its macro-economy under external shocks are analyzed. The empirical findings indicate that fiscal policy exerts a more significant and enduring influence on the macro-economy of China. Monetary policy is more likely to have a cyclical impact on the macro-economy. China has to carefully configure the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, and it ought to be aware of the impact of the economic cycle during the process of promoting economic recovery.

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Analysis of the Effects of China’s Economic Policies on the Fluctuations of the Economic Cycle

  • Caina Jiang,
  • Yikang Xie

摘要

Since 2019, the world economy was hit by two major external shocks, the COVID-19 epidemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, including China, of course. The Chinese government has also adopted economic policies to stabilize the Chinese economy. In this paper, by constructing a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, based on the impulse response image, the influences and consequences of China’s economic policies on its macro-economy under external shocks are analyzed. The empirical findings indicate that fiscal policy exerts a more significant and enduring influence on the macro-economy of China. Monetary policy is more likely to have a cyclical impact on the macro-economy. China has to carefully configure the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, and it ought to be aware of the impact of the economic cycle during the process of promoting economic recovery.