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Objective: To investigate the multifaceted impacts of normalized centralized volume-based drug procurement (CVP) on pharma firms and to provide insights for improving procurement policies and developing the pharmaceutical industry. Methods: Financial data from 2011 to 2023 for firms selected in three pre-normalization CVP rounds were analyzed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast key indicators and assess the impacts of the policy. Results: The normalization of CVP has reduced fluctuations in the long-term performance of pharma firms. Notably, selected firms have increased their R&D investments and, as a result of securing more ample cash flow, have enhanced their financial stability. Those repeatedly chosen have shifted their operational focus more significantly toward drug research and development. Conclusion: In the context of normalized CVP, firms should focus on improving R&D and supply chain efficiencies. Policy should support enterprise innovation and sustainability.

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The Multifaceted Impacts of Government Policy on Pharma Firms Based on Forecasting: Insights from a Case Study on Centralized Drug Procurement in China

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Tingting Liu,
  • Yaqi Zhang,
  • Ben Niu,
  • Huifen Zhong

摘要

Objective: To investigate the multifaceted impacts of normalized centralized volume-based drug procurement (CVP) on pharma firms and to provide insights for improving procurement policies and developing the pharmaceutical industry. Methods: Financial data from 2011 to 2023 for firms selected in three pre-normalization CVP rounds were analyzed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast key indicators and assess the impacts of the policy. Results: The normalization of CVP has reduced fluctuations in the long-term performance of pharma firms. Notably, selected firms have increased their R&D investments and, as a result of securing more ample cash flow, have enhanced their financial stability. Those repeatedly chosen have shifted their operational focus more significantly toward drug research and development. Conclusion: In the context of normalized CVP, firms should focus on improving R&D and supply chain efficiencies. Policy should support enterprise innovation and sustainability.