Many countries have begun investing in green energy as an intervention to enable sustainable development and adapt to climate change. This shift, including donor-led intervention, is also occurring in conflict-prone regions, prompting the following question: does renewable energy have pacifying effects on civil war? This study investigates the effect of renewable energy on civil war occurrence by unpacking its direct and indirect mechanisms. It argues that renewable energy does not necessarily reduce civil wars directly because, despite wider accessibility to profits compared to traditional resources, which reduces individual motivation to fight for earning purposes, the availability of profits enhances the feasibility of rebellion by securing funds. Accessibility to electricity also enhances the feasibility of rebellion by enabling potential insurgents to overcome operational challenges at nighttime when insurgents normally come out. It facilitates gathering and loading weapons in places such as mountainous terrain where traditionally electricity access had been weak. Instead of direct mechanism, renewable energy indirectly reduces civil wars by boosting economic development and democratization. Using renewable energy data for 160 countries from 1991 to 2016, the empirical analysis showed that renewable energy decreases the number of active rebel groups and civil wars. However, a mediation analysis revealed that this effect occurs through the indirect mechanism of economic development but not through democratization. These findings imply that green energy investment that is compatible with economic development is crucial for peace.

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Renewable Energy, Development, and Peace: Does Renewable Energy Have Pacifying Effects on Civil Wars?

  • Wakako Maekawa

摘要

Many countries have begun investing in green energy as an intervention to enable sustainable development and adapt to climate change. This shift, including donor-led intervention, is also occurring in conflict-prone regions, prompting the following question: does renewable energy have pacifying effects on civil war? This study investigates the effect of renewable energy on civil war occurrence by unpacking its direct and indirect mechanisms. It argues that renewable energy does not necessarily reduce civil wars directly because, despite wider accessibility to profits compared to traditional resources, which reduces individual motivation to fight for earning purposes, the availability of profits enhances the feasibility of rebellion by securing funds. Accessibility to electricity also enhances the feasibility of rebellion by enabling potential insurgents to overcome operational challenges at nighttime when insurgents normally come out. It facilitates gathering and loading weapons in places such as mountainous terrain where traditionally electricity access had been weak. Instead of direct mechanism, renewable energy indirectly reduces civil wars by boosting economic development and democratization. Using renewable energy data for 160 countries from 1991 to 2016, the empirical analysis showed that renewable energy decreases the number of active rebel groups and civil wars. However, a mediation analysis revealed that this effect occurs through the indirect mechanism of economic development but not through democratization. These findings imply that green energy investment that is compatible with economic development is crucial for peace.