This chapter examines how the war in Ukraine has upended long-held assumptions about military victory and Western geopolitical strategy. Despite persistent Western rhetoric, Russia has not been defeated; even if conventional forces were overwhelmed, Moscow retains its nuclear deterrent. A critical miscalculation by Euro-Atlantic governments has caused many losses among the Ukraine population, jeopardized Europe’s security and economic stability, as their reliance on military solutions has proven ineffective. In February 2025, President Trump initiated negotiations with President Putin, signaling a shift toward pragmatic diplomacy and an acknowledgment that Ukraine’s military defeat is inevitable. This development exposes the limitations of NATO’s strategy and underscores Europe’s diminished influence, as its role in the peace process becomes increasingly marginal. Meanwhile, Russia has strengthened its alliances with China, India, and Iran, further challenging the global balance of power. The chapter also reviews Kishore Mahbubani’s proposals for Europe’s strategic autonomy—suggesting options such as leaving NATO, negotiating with Russia, and forging a new compact with China—as alternatives to blind adherence to outdated alliances. Ultimately, the conflict reveals that Western economies based on financialization are ill-equipped for modern warfare, requiring a structural transformation to meet future geopolitical challenges.

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The War in Ukraine and the Hegemonic Crisis

  • Francesco Sylos Labini,
  • Matteo Caravani

摘要

This chapter examines how the war in Ukraine has upended long-held assumptions about military victory and Western geopolitical strategy. Despite persistent Western rhetoric, Russia has not been defeated; even if conventional forces were overwhelmed, Moscow retains its nuclear deterrent. A critical miscalculation by Euro-Atlantic governments has caused many losses among the Ukraine population, jeopardized Europe’s security and economic stability, as their reliance on military solutions has proven ineffective. In February 2025, President Trump initiated negotiations with President Putin, signaling a shift toward pragmatic diplomacy and an acknowledgment that Ukraine’s military defeat is inevitable. This development exposes the limitations of NATO’s strategy and underscores Europe’s diminished influence, as its role in the peace process becomes increasingly marginal. Meanwhile, Russia has strengthened its alliances with China, India, and Iran, further challenging the global balance of power. The chapter also reviews Kishore Mahbubani’s proposals for Europe’s strategic autonomy—suggesting options such as leaving NATO, negotiating with Russia, and forging a new compact with China—as alternatives to blind adherence to outdated alliances. Ultimately, the conflict reveals that Western economies based on financialization are ill-equipped for modern warfare, requiring a structural transformation to meet future geopolitical challenges.