In 2023, international oil prices fluctuated at medium to high levels, and the Americas, represented by the US, intensified upstream asset restructuring and investment and development, which ushered in significant growth in crude oil production and gradual expansion of crude oil market share; at the same time, the OPEC+ organization, represented by Saudi Arabia, pursued the policy of limiting production to protect prices and tightened oil market supply significantly to support oil market balance and high oil prices. In 2023, the total global oil supply will increase by 1.6 mb/d to 99.92 mb/d year-on-year, with the increase in supply basically coming from non-OPEC countries. In 2024, the OPEC+ may continue the measure of limiting production to protect prices, and non-OPEC countries will continue to lead the production growth, and the global oil supply is expected to reach 101 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d year-on-year, with a further slowdown in the growth of production. In the medium and long term, the profound adjustment of the geopolitical situation will lead to the reconstruction of the global oil supply pattern, and the oil trade between the East and the West will gradually become fragmented, with the oil supply rising in the West and declining in the East; the difference between the quality of crude oil supply and the quality of crude oil demand will lead to the emergence of stage-by-stage structural contradiction in the crude oil trade, with the low-sulphur light crude oil and natural gas liquids becoming the main force of the growth in supply, and medium-heavy sulphur-containing crude oil becoming the main force of the growth in demand. Under the background of carbon neutrality, upstream investment will pick up in the short term, but the remaining capacity grows significantly, while in the medium to long term, driven by peaking carbon emissions, upstream investment may show a downward trend, and the global supply growth will slow down or even shrink.