Study in Global Carbon Market Trends
摘要
In recent years, new changes in the global carbon market have continued to emerge. From an international perspective, the implementation of the reform program of the EU carbon market mechanism supported the EU carbon price to break the 100 euro mark for the first time in 2023; in 2024, despite the downward pressure on the economy and the increase in the amount of allowance auctions that puts the market under pressure, the EU's climate policy ambition will continue to support the price of carbon, and the price is expected to be mostly in the range of 60 to 90 EUR/ton in the EU. From a domestic perspective, in 2023, given that China's national carbon market presents a situation of rising quantity and price, considering the gradual improvement of the system, the gradual increase in the number of industries covered, coupled with the expectation of realizing the “annual compliance” and the increase in the activity of enterprises in trading, the price of the national carbon allowance will generally rise in 2024, and it is not ruled out that the price will exceed RMB 100 yuan/ton mark at individual times. Local carbon market, which is greatly affected by macroeconomic and local regional policies, is expected to see the carbon price in China's local pilot market adjusted in 2024. In order to promote the better development of China's carbon market, it is recommended to further enhance the liquidity and trading activity of the national carbon market, carry out the informationization construction of carbon emission data, and promote the convergence of China's carbon market with the international carbon market.