This chapter develops time-series Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) for Bhutan from 1990 to 2022, addressing challenges posed by data gaps and inconsistencies across various versions of the Bhutanese System of National Accounts (BTSNA). It emphasizes the importance of adopting consistent methodologies for assessing industry and product outputs, particularly in sectors like electricity, where pricing complexities and measurement issues are prominent. The official estimates, which are based on fixed-weight Laspeyres indices, tend to underestimate real value-added growth. By applying double deflation and chain indices based on the time-series SUTs constructed in this chapter, real GDP growth estimates for the post-democratization period (2008–2022) are revised, revealing an average revised real growth rate of 5.5%, 0.74 percentage points higher than the official figs. A notable shift in growth drivers is also identified: hydropower’s contribution to real growth decreased from 27.2% (1990–2008) to 14.1% (2008–2022). The manufacturing sector’s contribution also halved, suggesting potential signs of “Dutch disease.” The findings emphasize the need for further refinement in data to strengthen the analysis and lay the groundwork for a detailed productivity study in subsequent chapters.

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Reevaluating Industry Origins of Bhutan’s Economic Growth

  • Koji Nomura

摘要

This chapter develops time-series Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) for Bhutan from 1990 to 2022, addressing challenges posed by data gaps and inconsistencies across various versions of the Bhutanese System of National Accounts (BTSNA). It emphasizes the importance of adopting consistent methodologies for assessing industry and product outputs, particularly in sectors like electricity, where pricing complexities and measurement issues are prominent. The official estimates, which are based on fixed-weight Laspeyres indices, tend to underestimate real value-added growth. By applying double deflation and chain indices based on the time-series SUTs constructed in this chapter, real GDP growth estimates for the post-democratization period (2008–2022) are revised, revealing an average revised real growth rate of 5.5%, 0.74 percentage points higher than the official figs. A notable shift in growth drivers is also identified: hydropower’s contribution to real growth decreased from 27.2% (1990–2008) to 14.1% (2008–2022). The manufacturing sector’s contribution also halved, suggesting potential signs of “Dutch disease.” The findings emphasize the need for further refinement in data to strengthen the analysis and lay the groundwork for a detailed productivity study in subsequent chapters.